International Iron and Steel Institute (IISI) short range outlook and medium term forecast

摘要

On the occasion of the annual conference 2006 the International Iron and Steel Institute (IISI) forecasts a world growth rate in apparent steel use rising from 1,029 million t in 2005 to 1,121 million t in 2006, an increase of 9 percent. Latest projections for 2007 suggest a more moderate forecast growth rate of 5 percent to 1,179 million t. The projections forecast by the IISI Economics Committee consider both real and apparent steel use. Apparent steel use reflects the deliveries of steel to the market place from the steel producers as well as from importers. These figures, however, may differ from the amount of steel actually being used with the difference being added to, or drawn from inventories. Reflecting on the current year, China and Asia have again dominated the world market for steel. With an increasing expenditure on infrastructure and construction in India, IISI forecasts the apparent steel use in India will grow 10 percent in 2006. However, by far the strongest growth in apparent steel use for 2006 comes from China with a 14 percent increase. Steel use in the European Union for 2006 has been strong, with the construction and engineering industries leading the way. As one of the major economies in Europe, the strong recovery in Germany has contributed to the 8 percent growth in apparent steel use for the EU (25) economies. IISI estimates that this figure includes some addition to inventories as well as a rise in real steel use. Growth in the tube and pipe sectors in Russia has contributed to the strong economic growth in the CIS region. The NAFTA region has also seen strong growth with an 8 percent increase in steel use. However, higher interest rates and higher energy prices will begin to affect apparent steel use in this region later in 2006 and into 2007. Strong demand for natural resources, including iron ore, has contributed to the strong growth in South America with an 11 percent increase in apparent steel use from 32 million t in 2005 to a predicted figure of 36 million t in 2006. Shipbuilding has contributed to the turn around in the Japan's economy supporting the 1 percent rise in apparent steel use in 2006.