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Some properties of an estimator for the basic reproduction number of the general epidemic model

机译:流行病模型基本繁殖数的估计量的某些性质

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摘要

In this paper some properties of a convenient estimator, derived from a martingale estimating function, for the basic reproduction number of the general epidemic model are given for both finite and large samples. These properties give some guidelines for using this convenient estimator. It is shown that it underestimates the parameter and that the bias tends to zero when the population size and the initial number of infectives are increased simultaneously. The bias cannot be removed for a fixed number of introductory infectives. However, the estimator is asymptotically unbiased, conditional on a major outbreak. A simulation study shows that the central limit theorem applies for moderate population sizes.
机译:在本文中,从a估计函数得出的便捷估计量的一些性质,针对有限样本和大样本给出了一般流行病模型的基本复制数。这些属性为使用此方便的估算器提供了一些指导。结果表明,它低估了该参数,并且当种群数量和感染初始数量同时增加时,偏倚趋向于零。对于固定数量的介绍性感染,无法消除偏见。但是,估算器在主要爆发条件下没有渐近性。仿真研究表明,中心极限定理适用于中等种群。

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