Shell Passenger Car Scenarios up to 2030 - Facts, Trends and Options for Sustainable Auto-Mobility in Germany

摘要

The 25th edition of the Shell Passenger Car Scenarios is characterised by transition. Following a uniform socio-economic lead scenario, the present Passenger Car Study 2009 starts by analysing the possible consequences of demographic change on future auto-mobility in Germany. It tracks continuation of today's car ownership and mileage patterns up to 2030, differentiating by age and sex. The state of auto-mobility in Germany will in future be characterised more strongly by women and by older people. The motorisation of the German population will continue to increase. Passenger car mileage will continue to rise till 2020, then towards 2030 it will drop back to today's level. The study uses two mobility scenarios to examine how sustainable auto-mobility will develop in the coming years, measured by energy consumption and CO_2 emissions. One of these scenarios, called "Automobile Adaptation", is based on continuation of today's trends and behaviour patterns into the future; it already shows substantial reduction in energy consumption and CO_2 emissions of the passenger car fleet. The alternative scenario "Auto-Mobility in Transition" is characterised by rapid technological change and greater diversification of propulsion and fuel technologies. But conventional propulsion systems and fuels will still be playing a key role in 2030. The Shell Passenger Car Scenarios for Germany close with a discussion on conditions and action options for sustainable auto-mobility.