Analysis of Selected Variables Affecting Rubber Production Using Price Expectation Supply Model in South Eastern Nigeria

摘要

This study attempted to analyze the relationship between rubber output and selected explanatory variables in Cross River State. Economic models were variously specified based on economic theory using secondary data from 1977 to 2002. Ordinary least squares technique was used to obtain the co-efficients of the parameter estimates using linear, double and semi-log functional forms. From the results obtained, the co-efficients of own price, labour wage and price of palm oil (proxy for oil palm used as an alternative crop) were significant at 5 percent level of probability. The signs of the co-efficients of weather (rainfall) and shift in government policies were consistent with a priori expectations. The sign of the price of palm oil was negative, confirming its inverse relationship with rubber cultivation. That of the dummy was equally negative, implying that government policies within the period under review may have had negative impact on rubber production. It is suggested that any measure that will lead to reduction in labour cost will enhance own price of rubber as well as buffer higher production.