New Utilization/Conservation Dilemmas in the Karoo, South Africa: Potential Economic, Demographic and Entrepreneurial Consequences

摘要

The landscape of the Karoo, the arid to semi-arid heartland of South Africa, has for millennia been subjected to a conservation/utilization dilemma. At first hunter-gatherer San tribes lived off Karoo plants and animals. Some two thousand years ago Khoikhoi herders and their livestock arrived. In the 18th Century European farmer settlers moved into the Karoo and replaced the San and Khoikhoi. In time they became wool producers and suppliers to Industrial Britain.Wool was a major export staple of the Cape Colony. After World War II wool passed its export pinnacle and by the 1960s some Karoo towns were regressing. Increased poverty was a big concern and numerous government-instigated investigations followed. Sincethen some Karoo towns have prospered in post-productive fashion.Now the Karoo faces new development challenges. South Africa's part of the Square Kilometre Array, a large radio telescope, is being developed in the western Great Karoo. Some large solar power installations have also been erected. The Karoo was also identified as a likely source of shale gas. The South African government recently decided to allow exploration to proceed, an action that has occasioned vociferous opposition ancf rekindled the conservation/utilization dilemma. Exploration could last a decade and the period should be used to gather facts needed for wise and transparent decisions. This chapter contributes to this by focusing on the links between economic value addition, demographics, personal income and entrepreneurship in selected Karoo towns. Statistical and other techniques are used to quantify relationships between gross economic value addition, town populations, total personal income and total number of enterprises in Karoo towns. A power law describes the enterprise richness of Karootowns and ak analysis of functional business diversity indicates a tipping point at about 100 enterprises. The ways by which entrepreneurial spaces are used in Karoo towns are elucidated and a predictive capability is developed about the likely responses of populations, entrepreneurs and employment in Karoo towns to economic impacts, be they from the exploitation of shale gas or other developments. A lack of local information forced theuse of US information about drilling rig numbers and densities in shale gas and oil extraction. This enables predictions indicating substantial economic and other benefits to some Karoo towns from shale gas extraction. These benefits have to be weighed against potential detrimental impacts of gas extraction in order to seek possible win-win solutions.