Back to the 1980s in World Oil Markets

摘要

The failure of global oil demand and non-Opec supply to respond as quickly to the oil price shock that created a new normal of $100 per barrel as they did to the price shocks of the 1970s appears to have lulled Opec in general, and Saudi Arabia in particular, into a false sense of security. Signs are that negative impacts on global oil demand and positive effects on non-Opec supply may ultimately prove even heftier and longer lasting this time around, with oil's monopoly over transportation now under threat and source rock opening huge new resources for exploitation. In a blast from the past, Saudi Arabia could well be forced to instigate another oil price war sometime in the future to protect its oil revenue and market share, with a new mid-price strategy thereafter.