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Robust inference for the mean in the presence of serial correlation and heavy-tailed distributions

机译:在存在序列相关和重尾分布的情况下对均值的稳健推断

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摘要

The problem of statistical inference for the mean of a time series with possibly heavy tails is considered Wefirst show that the self-normalized sample mean has a well-defined asymptotic distribution Subsampling theory is then used ot develop asymptotically correct confidence intervals for dthe mean without konowledge (or explicit estimation) either of hte dependence characteristics or of the tail indux Using a symmetrization technique we also construct a distribution astimator that combines robusteness and accuracy:it is higher-order accurate in the regular dase which remaining consistent in the heavy tailed ased Some finitesample simuations confirm the precticality of ht proposed methods.
机译:认为可能具有尾巴很重的时间序列的均值的统计推断问题我们首先表明,自归一化的样本均值具有明确的渐近分布,然后使用二次抽样理论来为没有知识的均值建立渐近正确的置信区间(或显式估计)hte依赖特征或尾部indux使用对称化技术,我们还构造了一个分布鲁棒器,结合了鲁棒性和准确性:在规则的dase中它是高阶精度的,在重尾的aed中保持一致有限样本模拟证实了所提出方法的准确性。

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