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Managing public health crises: the role of models in pandemic preparedness.

机译:处理公共卫生危机:大流行防范中模型的作用。

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BACKGROUND: Given the enormity of challenges involved in pandemic preparedness, design and implementation of effective and cost-effective public health policies is a major task that requires an integrated approach through engagement of scientific, administrative, and political communities across disciplines. There is ample evidence to suggest that modeling may be a viable approach to accomplish this task. METHODS: To demonstrate the importance of synergism between modelers, public health experts, and policymakers, the University of Winnipeg organized an interdisciplinary workshop on the role of models in pandemic preparedness in September 2008. The workshop provided an excellent opportunity to present outcomes of recent scientific investigations that thoroughly evaluate the merits of preventive, therapeutic, and social distancing mechanisms, where community structures, priority groups, healthcare providers, and responders to emergency situations are given specific consideration. RESULTS: This interactive workshop was clearly successful in strengthening ties between various disciplines and creating venues for modelers to effectively communicate with policymakers. The importance of modeling in pandemic planning was highlighted, and key parameters that affect policy decision-making were identified. Core assumptions and important activities in Canadian pandemic plans at the provincial and national levels were also discussed. CONCLUSIONS: There will be little time for thoughtful and rapid reflection once an influenza pandemic strikes, and therefore preparedness is an unavoidable priority. Modeling and simulations are key resources in pandemic planning to map out interdependencies and support complex decision-making. Models are most effective in formulating strategies for managing public health crises when there are synergies between modelers, planners, and policymakers.
机译:背景:由于大流行防范方面的挑战十分艰巨,有效和具有成本效益的公共卫生政策的设计和实施是一项重大任务,需要通过跨学科的科学,行政和政治团体的参与采取综合方法。有大量证据表明建模可能是完成此任务的可行方法。方法:为了证明建模人员,公共卫生专家和政策制定者之间协同增效的重要性,温尼伯大学于2008年9月组织了一次跨学科研讨会,探讨了模型在大流行防范中的作用。该研讨会为介绍最新科学成果提供了极好的机会全面评估预防,治疗和社会隔离机制的优点的调查得到了具体考虑,在这些机制中,社区结构,优先群体,医疗保健提供者和紧急情况响应者得到了特别考虑。结果:这次互动研讨会显然在加强各个学科之间的联系以及为建模人员创建与政策制定者有效沟通的场所方面取得了成功。强调了在大流行规划中进行建模的重要性,并确定了影响政策决策的关键参数。还讨论了加拿大大流行计划在省级和国家级的核心假设和重要活动。结论:一旦流感大流行来袭,几乎没有时间进行深思熟虑和迅速的反思,因此,防备是不可避免的优先事项。建模和模拟是大流行规划中用于绘制相互依存关系并支持复杂决策的关键资源。当建模者,计划者和决策者之间具有协同作用时,模型对于制定管理公共卫生危机的策略最为有效。

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