2016 Catle and beef markets: An Industry in Transition

摘要

2015 has been a year of transition for cattle markets. Beef herd expansion, which began in 2014, led to a slightly higher calf crop in 2015 and will lead to increased beef production starting in 2016. Cattle prices, which peaked short term a year ago,were above year ago levels through the first half of 2015 before beginning the long erosion that will accompany herd rebuilding and increased beef production in the coming years. The market has been challenged by numerous shock in 2015, including a portclosure;a strong dollar; global unrest over China; larger than expected pork supplies (due to lack of PED virus impacts); larger than expected domestic broiler supplies (due to avian influenza-induced export reductions); and a self-inflicted fed cattle market wreck due to overfeeding feedlot cattle. Nevertheless, cattle and beef markets remain strong. Based on annual averages, 2015 will be the highest cattle prices ever and the lowest beef production since 1994. As the transition continues, changes will occur in the coming years.