World Energy Outlook 2008 World Oil Supply: The Middle East Is the Only Hope

摘要

The publication of its annual World Energy Outlook (WEO) always gives the International Energy Agency (IEA) an opportunity to cast the spotlight on a major issue regarding future world energy balances, or imbalances. In the case of the 2008 edition, which was published on 12 November, the Agency highlights the decline in output at producing oil fields. Making this subject the key issue of its WEO 2008 was unquestionably a good choice, since the IEA rightly points out that the future decline in fields already in production is the most important individual determinant of the volume of additional oil production capacity that will have to be brought on stream in the coming years. The IEA asserts that future supply is far more sensitive to the rate of decline of producing oil fields than to the rate of growth of oil demand and calculates that, even if demand were to remain unchanged up to 2030, additional production capacity of 45 million b/d would have to be developed during that period simply to offset that decline.