IEA World Energy Outlook 2005:Is it Realistic to Hope for Oil Production of 50.5 Million B/D in the Middle East and North Africa by 2030?

摘要

After the turmoil caused by the strong growth in demand and the sharp rise in prices over the past two years,it was particularly interesting to hear the viewpoint of the International Energy Agency(IEA)on the possible development of the world's energy markets,especially the oil market,in the foreseeable future.Thanks to its 30 years' experience and to the financial and human resources available to it,this organization is effectively well placed to evaluate the long-term impact of the changes underway.Is the exceptionally rapid growth in energy needs since 2003 a passing phenomenon or a lasting one? From where and at what price will come the supplies needed to satisfy the rapidly growing demand for energy not only in industrialized countries but also and increasingly in China and other emerging countries,not forgetting in oil-exporting countries themselves?