High Oil Prices Seem Here to Stay

摘要

Among the factors that have fueled the oil price spiral,which has been going on for 18 months now,some are temporary,such as the cyclones in the Gulf of Mexico or the fears of a harsh winter in the northern hemisphere.But others,such as the threats to the Russian company Yukos,political and social unrest in Nigeria and Venezuela,and the recurrent terrorist attacks against oil facilities in Iraq,could well last for a good many more weeks or months.And yet others seem even more lasting and more worrying,because they are structural in nature and affect the fundamentals of the world oil market.On the demand side,they include the growth in gasoline consumption and refining bottlenecks in the United States and the completely unexpected explosion in world energy needs,while the main supply side factor is the no less unexpected saturation of oil production and refining capacities.