Global oil price and food prices in food importing and oil exporting developing countries: A panel ARDL analysis

摘要

In this study, we attempt to look into the cointegration and causal link of oil and food prices in the sample countries that are both food importing and oil exporting economies. Yearly data sets of 21 countries were used and the paper covers a time period of 2001–2015. The stationarity property of I(0) and I(I) of the variables informed the use of panel ARDL model. The short period analysis shows negative effects between food prices and oil price while positive effects exist in the long period. The causality result of the sample country shows that causality runs from food prices to oil price. The result implies that appropriate agricultural policies that promote favourable food prices and alternative energy options should be pursued in the countries to ensure sustained food and oil supply.