Lithium analysis

摘要

The outlook for lithium was discussed at the AABC conference in Mainz, Germany, last week and it was quite surprising how differing the views were. One analyst was not expecting a shortage of lithium mine supply until 2029, with hydroxide shortages expected from 2026. Another expected the producer response that is now underway as likely to lead to a balanced market or surplus situation next year. What is difficult to understand with the forecast that does not see any shortage until 2026, is why have prices lifted as much as they have? Expecting the supply response to lead to a balanced market, or even a surplus next year could be feasible. But, we wonder whether these expectations are taking into account the risk that the ramp-up of new projects rarely run smoothly and the time taken to qualify new material.