Building a high-resolution chronology of a medieval urban site through Bayesian modelling*

摘要

This paper shows that combining stratigraphic information with dendrochronological and radiocarbon dating in a Bayesian model is a powerful tool in producing a high-resolution chronology for a medieval urban site. By using all available archaeological information, it is possible to construct a chronology of higher accuracy, transparency and reproducibility than that created through informal interpretation and ceramics chronologies. The example shows how a modelling process is also a valuable tool in validating and reassessing the stratigraphic interpretations. The model is used on two levels: (1) to establish the overall site chronology; and (2) to investigate the age and duration of individual events and structures. Finally, since the model is constructed independently of ceramics chronologies, it is suggested that the current local ceramics chronology could be revised.