Risk assessment of rail haulage accidents in inclined tunnels with Bayesian network and bow-tie model

摘要

Rail haulage system is an important part in mine production as people and materials are mainly transported through rail haulage equipment. The purpose of this communication is to establish a composite risk analysis model of rail haulage accidents in inclined tunnels based on Bayesian network and bow-tie model, which can be used to predict the risk of rail haulage accidents in mines and adopt relevant safety measures towards critical basic events. First, a simple case study of mapping fault tree into Bayesian network was introduced. Second, the risk level and critical basic events could be achieved according to forward analysis and backward analysis of Bayesian network with the help of GeNIe software. The obstacles on rails, unqualified rails and acceleration or deceleration were identified as the first category critical basic events of rail haulage accidents based on the above analysis. Third, acceleration or deceleration was chosen as the risk Bayesian node and a detailed analysis was made using bow-tie model. Twelve preventive safety measures were set on the left to prevent basic events and 10 mitigative safety measures were set on the right to mitigate accident consequences, the risk of rail haulage accidents in inclined tunnels can further be reduced by bow-tie analysis. Composite risk analysis model can be applied for similar risk analysis of rail haulage accidents.