Pundits See Rangebound Oil Pricing Through Next Year

摘要

For some time now, oil price forecasts have been far rosier than borne out by reality, with Opec production cuts and healthy demand growth failing to put the expected pep back in the oil market. This overly bullish view of oil mar- kets has begun to lose its luster, with the latest price pun- dits survey from Jet Fuel Intelligence sister publication PIW showing a broad downward revision of forecasts for Brent and US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) through the balance of the year and 2018. An overview of pricing projections shows a muted recovery in oil prices through 2018, with global benchmark Brent not expected to break the $55 per barrel mark next year. The spread between high and low projections has also narrowed as pundits become more accepting of the “even lower for even longer” mindset, while also abandoning their most dramatic downside projections. There is a range of just $10/bbl in the 2018 price forecasts surveyed by PIW: there are no longer fears of a crash toward $20, yet hopes are muted for a $60 oil price returning anytime soon.