Individual Risk Prediction for Sight-Threatening Retinopathy of Prematurity Using Birth Characteristics

摘要

Question Can a prediction model be constructed for retinopathy of prematurity needing treatment by using only birth characteristics data and applying advanced statistical methods? Findings In this cohort study of 6947 infants born at gestational age 24 to 30 weeks, the prediction model incorporating only postnatal age, gestational age, sex, and birth weight provided a predictive ability for retinopathy of prematurity needing treatment that was comparable to current models requiring postnatal data (not always available). The risk for retinopathy of prematurity needing treatment increased up to 12 weeks' postnatal age irrespective of the infants' gestational age. Meaning This prediction model identifying infants with a high risk for developing sight-threatening disease at an early time may improve the conditions for optimal screening.