Sino-DPRK Geopolitical Curse behind Kim Jong-un's Olive Branch

摘要

This study explores Sino-DPRK relations behind Pyongyang's olive branch in 2018. After several rounds of "war of words" with US President Donald Trump in 2017, Kim Jung-un abruptly changed his nuclear policy in 2018 by pledging to be committed to denuclearization. This paper argues that beneath the Pyongyang's U-turn is China's subtle deviation from its traditional geopolitical strategy. After a leadership transition in 2012, China, under Xi Jinping's pursuit of building a responsible superpower shouldering greater international responsibilities and obligations, struggled hard to escape from the "curse" of geopolitics in addressing the Korean peninsula. The resultant estranged Sino-DPRK relations made Kim Jong-un's three political goals - namely nuclear armament, economic growth, and domestic support - an "impossible trinity." Although Kim Jong-un counted on military adventurism to lure China into a geopolitical trap by escalating tension surrounding the THAAD deployment in South Korea, Trump's inauguration foiled Kim's scheme. As tension between Pyongyang and Washington mounted to hair-trigger point, Xi Jinping, in the fear of possible US-DPRK military confrontation, further tightened the economic restraint against the North. Kim Jong-un, unable to rely on China's patronage for security and economy, was compelled to negotiate denuclearization directly with Washington.