The study on ecological sustainable development in Chengdu

摘要

Ecological footprint is one of the important methods to study ecological sustainable development, but ecological footprint focuses on only the static calculation of ecological sustainable development and cannot dynamically predict its development. In this study, we combine ecological footprint with system dynamics software STELLA to construct a predictable model of ecological sustainable development. We introduce rate1 and rate2 into the model, which reflects the change in per capita consumption of biological resources and energy due to the socio-economic development, and by changing the values of them to simulate a variety of scenarios. The results show that ecological sustainable development of Chengdu is in the state of ecological deficit, which is 1.43 million hm(2) in 2013, and different rate1 and rate2 will lead to different changes in the ecological deficit. When rate1 = rate2 = 0.1, the degree of ecological deficit in Chengdu is reduced from 1.43 million hm(2) to 1.24 million hm(2) in 2013-2018, and after 2018, it begins to increase, which will reach 1.32 million hm(2) in 2021. And when rate1 = rate2 = 0.05, the ecological deficit of Chengdu in 2013-2021 will decrease gradually, which from 1.43 million hm(2) to 1.31 million hm(2). These results reflect the impact of economic development on ecological sustainable development, and it can provide a reference for the balanced development of economic and ecological protection, which will help decision makers to do something for ecological sustainable development planning of Chengdu. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.