A Delphi study of human factors methods for the evaluation of adaptation in safety-related organisations

摘要

Advances in safety science point towards an approach to the management of safety-related risks within complex sociotechnical systems that focuses on the understanding of adaptation. The study of adaptation would benefit from the use of structured and formalised approaches at, and across, all levels of the organisational hierarchy (individual, team and organisation). However, with a large number of potential Human Factors methods available to the safety practitioner, it is unclear which methods are most appropriate for an exploration of this important tenet of systems thinking. A 3-round ranking Delphi study has been conducted to survey the range of methods to determine a soft consensus amongst subject matter experts. In each of the three rounds the list was successively refined. Cognitive Work Analysis (CWA) and Critical Decision Method (CDM) were recommended for the micro level (which could be complemented by HTA). At the meso level, CDM and CWA together with complementary methods, such as Systems Theoretic Accident Modelling and Processes (STAMP), Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM) and the Event Analysis for Systemic Teamwork (EAST) method. STAMP and FRAM were recommended at the macro level, which could be complemented with Hierarchical Task Analysis (HTA), Ethnographic Analysis, EAST and the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS). The methods, taken together, should provide a means of exploring adaptation at all of the sociotechnical system levels. This work provides safety practitioners with consolidated guidance on the methods that could be used to explore adaptation as a source of safety in complex sociotechnical systems.