A system dynamics analysis of the alternative roofing market and its potential impacts on urban environmental problems: A case study in Orlando, Florida

摘要

Recent advances in sustainable construction and development methods have allowed urban developers to significantly reduce urban environmental problems caused by buildings such as increased energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, urban runoff, and the urban heat island effect. Newer forms of green infrastructure, including alternative roofing (green roofs, solar BIPV systems, etc.), have emerged as potential solutions to these urban environmental problems. However, a number of practical and socioeconomic factors are currently limiting their market penetration to a marginal share. This study employs a System Dynamics modeling approach to analyze these hindrances in Orlando's alternative roofing market, as well as the potential of societal, economic, and developmental investments in different alternative roofing markets to address these issues. Conventional roofs have been found to remain predominant in Orlando's roofing market under all policy scenarios, with solar roof system being the most mature out of the three alternative roofing markets considered, and consequently has the most potential for future market penetration. It has been found that the studied alternative roof systems (ARSs) reach only a marginal market share in the year 2040, and for this reason, could not result in significant improvements in the studied impact categories at the city level. However, the studied ARSs yield important reductions in all of the impact categories when analyzed at the building level. The results of this study indicate that the alternative roofing market has significant growth potential, but further research, development, and improvement will be essential to achieve more effective, long-term benefits in Orlando.