EIA EXPECTS STABLE BIOFUELS PRODUCTION, CONSUMPTION, TRADE THROUGH 2020

摘要

In its February 2019 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA forecasts that several recent trends in U.S. biofuels markets will continue through 2020. In the STEO, production of fuel ethanol and net imports of biomass-based diesel stay unchanged, while net exports of fuel ethanol decline modesdy. Federal mandates and state programs continue to support biofuel consumption through 2020, however, biofuels remain a relatively small share of total U.S. liquid transportation fuels supply. The most common biofuels consumed both domestically and globally are fuel ethanol and biomass-based diesel. Fuel ethanol is primarily blended with motor gasoline blendstock in the United States to produce 10% ethanol blended motor gasoline, or E10. Biomass-based diesel, which collectively refers to biodiesel and renewable diesel, is typically mixed with ultra-low sulfur distillate fuel at varying percentages. EIA expects that U.S. fuel ethanol production will remain near current levels, decreasing slightly in 2019 to 1.04 million b/d and increasing to 1.05 million b/d in 2020. Fuel ethanol production is largely dependent on domestic motor gasoline consumption, which has been relatively stable in recent years, as fuel economy improvements have largely offset increases in population and vehicle miles traveled.