US EIA trims 2020 gas production, price forecasts; expects increases in 2021

摘要

Amid weak gas and power demand, the US Energy Information Administration on June 9 cut its forecast for total US natural gas marketed production for the remainder of the year, even as it expected production to rise beginning in the second quarter of 2021 propelled by higher prices. EIA, in its June Short-Term Energy Outlook, lowered by 600 MMcf/d, to 97.78 Bcf/d, its gas marketed production estimate in Q2-20 and trimmed by 160 MMcf/d, to 94.98 Bcf/d, the estimate for Q3. The production forecast for 2020 on average was lowered 280 MMcf/d, to 96.79 Bcf/d, but raised by 460 MMcf/d, to 92.4 Bcf/d, for 2021. “EIA continues to forecast a decline in US dry as production from 2019 record levels, as low natural gas demand continues to put downward pressure on prices,” EIA Administrator Linda Capuano said in a statement accompanying the STEO report. Gas price forecasts for the rest of 2020 were also lowered from May estimates. EIA cut its forecast for Q2 Henry Hub spot prices by 12 cents to $1.73/MMBtu and it lowered the Q3 forecast 21 cents to $1.90/MMBtu. The agency projected Henry Hub natural gas prices would average $2.04/MMBtu for full-year 2020 and $3.08/MMBtu in 2021, in contrast with the May estimates of $2.14/MMBtu and $2.89/MMBtu, respectively. The sharpest increases in gas prices are expected this fall and winter, moving from an average of $2.06/MMBtu in September to $3.08/MMBtu in January, EIA said. It pointed to rising demand heading into winter, combined with reduced production putting upward pressure on prices, despite a forecast for record storage.