Issues for cropping and agricultural science in the next 20 years

摘要

This position paper honours agricultural scientist and colleague, Professor Bob Loomis, by discussing the urgent global challenge of food security and the related impacts on the environment facing agricultural science and society in the next critical 20 years. It uses the concepts of potential and actual (farm) crop yields and the yield gap between them to assess current and future opportunities for food supply to satisfy increasing demand. The cropping world is seen in two parts. The first part predominantly comprises low-input farming with very large yield gaps and a faster growing demand that can only be met with increasing imports. For these regions, a well established strategy is outlined for crop intensification through yield-gap closure that is essential for reducing rural malnutrition and poverty, and curtailing the likelihood of high food prices. For success, it must be complemented with strategies to remove the serious institutional and infrastructural barriers faced by farmers. The second part has more or less intensified, and yield gaps are generally small to moderate: it will fairly comfortably meet the demand from population growth. For these regions, some further yield gap closure is still possible but more importantly greater potential yields are required although the chances of accelerating this are discussed and seen to be limited. For all regions, sustainable intensification of cropping, predominantly on existing arable lands, is the best way forward. Combining sustainability with intensification is not a contradiction and is, in fact, essential; sustainability requires the efficient use of all inputs in cropping, and husbandry of the soil and agricultural biodiversity needed to continue to raise productivity. Off-farm environmental impacts are inevitable, but not insurmountable, hurdles. All aspects of sustainability require boosted RD&E and sound rural policies. Greater management skills for farmers and all others involved in crop production are also essential. Contestation based on biophysical aspects of food production and its impacts can be resolved through effective research and development with farmers, while that based on Northern cultural and normative views must not be allowed to obscure the goal of affordable food for all, and reward for farmers comparable with the rest of their societies.