Value-Ag: An integrated model for rapid ex-ante impact evaluation of agricultural innovations in smallholder systems

摘要

Evaluation of agricultural Research, Development, Extension and Management requires knowledge of farming systems economics and risk as well as broader adoption drivers. But until now, these factors have not been effectively combined when determining the success of agricultural research projects. To fill this gap, we developed Value-Ag, an integrated modelling platform using whole-farm economic analysis and prediction of the scaling potential in the context of production risk and household dynamics to provide an ex-ante estimate of the benefits of adopting an innovation. In this paper, we use a hypothetical case study to illustrate Value-Ag's potential to evaluate agricultural innovations in a rigorous, systematic and participatory manner across a range of scenarios, thereby stimulating thinking and learning opportunities with the relevant stakeholders, and increasing the scrutiny of projects so that they deliver greater value for money while fostering a more results-focused culture in developing countries.