Short term electric load forecasting using hybrid algorithm for smart cities

摘要

Many day-to-day operation decisions in a smart city need short term load forecasting (STLF) of its customers. STLF is a challenging task because the forecasting accuracy is affected by external factors whose relationships are usually complex and nonlinear. In this paper, a novel hybrid forecasting algorithm is proposed. The proposed hybrid forecasting method is based on locally weighted support vector regression (LWSVR) and the modified grasshopper optimization algorithm (MGOA). Obtaining the appropriate values of LWSVR parameters is vital to achieving satisfactory forecasting accuracy. Therefore, the MGOA is proposed in this paper to optimally select the LWSVR's parameters. The proposed MGOA can be derived by presenting two modifications on the conventional GOA in which the chaotic initialization and the sigmoid decreasing criterion are employed to treat the drawbacks of the conventional GOA. Then the hybrid LWSVR-MGOA method is used to solve the STLF problem. The performance of the proposed LWSVR-MGOA method is assessed using six different real-world datasets. The results reveal that the proposed forecasting method gives a much better forecasting performance in comparison with some published forecasting methods in all cases.