Decadal prediction skill of BCC‐CSM1.1 climate model in East Asia

Xin Xiaoge; Gao Feng; Wei Min; Wu Tongwen; Fang Yongjie; Zhang Jie

摘要

ABSTRACT >The forecast skill of BCC‐CSM1.1 model in summer East Asian climate was evaluated with the decadal prediction experiments launched annually during 1961–2005. Results of the decadal prediction were compared with those of the historical simulation to estimate contribution of the initialization. Improved prediction skill is found for summer surface air temperature (SAT) in central eastern China measured by both root mean square error (RMSE) and anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) for the forecast years 2–5. The decadal hindcast of precipitation in central eastern China shows increased skill in RMSE but not ACC. Such improvement in East Asia is related to enhanced prediction skill of the western Pacific (WP) sea surface temperature (SST) originated from the oceanic initialization. In the decadal hindcast, the lower tropospheric atmospheric circulation associated with warm WP exhibits an anticyclone over the South China Sea, which resembles the observation. The southwesterly increases over southeast China associated with warm WP, favouring higher SAT in central eastern China. This reveals that the decadal predictions could more realistically reproduce the relationship between summer East Asian atmospheric circulation and WP SST. The 4‐year average forecast within a decade shows that the initialization increases the ACC skill up to forecast years 4–7 for summer SAT in central eastern China. </abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><abstract xmlns =“http://www.wiley.com/namespaces/wiley”type =“main”> <title type =“main”>抽象</ title> > BCC-CSM1.1的预测技能夏季东亚气候的型号被每年在1961 - 2005年在每年发布的截止预测实验评估。与历史模拟的结果进行了比较了截止算法的结果，以估算初始化的贡献。通过对预测年2-5的均均线误差（RMSE）和异常相关系数（ACC）来测量的中央东部地区夏季表面空气温度（SAT），发现了改进的预测技能。中国东部地区降水的近距离传播表明，RMSE的技能增加，但不是ACC。东亚的这种改进与来自海洋初始化的西太平洋（WP）海表面温度（SST）的增强预测技能有关。在Decadal Hindcast中，与温暖的WP相关的较低的对流层大气循环在南海展出了一个反气旋，类似于观察。东南部的东南部增加与温暖的WP相关，在中国中央东部坐落。这揭示了十二年的预测可以更现实地重现夏季东亚大气循环和WP SST之间的关系。十年内的4年平均预测表明，初始化增加了夏季夏季夏季的预测4-7年4月7日。</ p> </摘要> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-21026/'>《International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2018年第2期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共9页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Xin Xiaoge&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Xin Xiaoge;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Gao Feng&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Gao Feng;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Wei Min&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Wei Min;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Wu Tongwen&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Wu Tongwen;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Fang Yongjie&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Fang Yongjie;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Zhang Jie&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Zhang Jie;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing China;</p> <p>Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing China;</p> <p>Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling Center for Earth System Science and Joint Center for Global Change Studies (JCGCS)Tsinghua UniversityBeijing China;</p> <p>Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing China;</p> <p>Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing China;</p> <p>Laboratory for Climate Studies National Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing China;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/1232.html" title="气候学">气候学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=decadal prediction&option=203" rel="nofollow">decadal prediction;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=East Asia&option=203" rel="nofollow">East Asia;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=initialization&option=203" rel="nofollow">initialization;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=hindcast&option=203" rel="nofollow">hindcast;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=BCC‐CSM&option=203" rel="nofollow">BCC‐CSM;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译：截止预测;东亚;初始化;Hindcast;BCC-CSM; </div> </li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="literature cardcommon"> <div class="similarity "> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent66">相似文献</h3> <div class="similaritytab clearfix"> <ul> <li class="active" >外文文献</li> <li 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href="/conference-cn-14653/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor"> . 第26届中国气象学会年会 </a> <span> <span> . 2009</span> </span> </div> </li> <li> <div> <b>6. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/academic-degree-domestic_mphd_thesis/020314738376.html">《利用COSOM-CLM模型在不同空间分辨率下对中东-北非地区的气候变化预测》翻译实践报告</a> <b>[A] </b> <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=孙婧婕&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor"> . 孙婧婕</a> <span> . 2019</span> </span> </div> </li> </ul> <ul style="display: none;"> <li> <div> <b>1. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/patent-detail/061203590668.html">中国江南地区夏季平均气温短期气候预测方法及系统</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 中国专利： CN106485371B </span> <span> . 2020.01.03</span> </div> </li> <li> <div> <b>2. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/patent-detail/06120108961014.html">中国江南地区夏季平均气温短期气候预测方法及系统</a> <b>[P]</b> . <span> 中国专利： CN106485371A </span> <span> . 2017-03-08</span> </div> </li> <li> <div> <b>3. 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