Projected changes in mean rainfall and temperature over East Africa based on CMIP5 models

Ongoma Victor; Chen Haishan; Gao Chujie

摘要

ABSTRACT >This study presents potential future variations of mean rainfall and temperature over East Africa (EA) based on five models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and representative concentration pathways (RCPs): 4.5 and 8.5. In this study, climate simulations of two timeframes, a baseline period (1961–1990) and projection period (2071–2100), are compared. The models reproduce EA's bimodal rainfall pattern but overestimate and underestimate seasonal rainfall of October–December (OND) and March–May (MAM), respectively. Rainfall is projected to increase under the two scenarios. Larger increases in rainfall will occur during the OND season than during the MAM season and in RCP8.5 than in RCP4.5. During the last half of the 21st century, EA is likely to warm by 1.7–2.8 and 2.2–5.4?°C under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, relative to the baseline period. Scenario uncertainty is projected to exceed model uncertainty from the middle to the end of the 21st century. The central parts of Kenya and the Lake Victoria Basin will witness the highest increases in seasonal rainfall. The probability density functions (PDFs) of future seasonal rainfall show a positive shift and a statistically insignificant increase in variance relative to the baseline. Thus, EA is likely to experience an increase in extreme rainfall events. Understanding the future climate variability in EA is important for planning purposes but these results are based on relatively course resolution models prone to bias and therefore should be used with caution. There is a need for further research on climate projections over EA, including determining the causes of the poor performance of global models in reproducing rainfall climatology and trends over the region. </abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><Abstract XMLNS =“http://www.wiley.com/namespaces/wiley”type =“main”> <title type =“main”>抽象</ title> >本研究显示了平均降雨的潜在未来变化基于五个模型的东非（EA）对参与耦合模型互相诊断项目5（CMIP5）和代表性浓度途径（RCPS）：4.5和8.5的五种模型进行了温度（EA）：4.5和8.5。在本研究中，比较两个时间帧，基线时期（1961-1990）和投影周期（2071-2100）的气候模拟。该模型再现EA的双峰降雨量，但分别高估和低估了10月至12月（OND）和3月（MAM）的季节降雨。降雨量在两种情况下预计增加。在IND季节期间，降雨量的较大增加将比曼季和RCP8.5在RCP4.5中发生。在21世纪的最后一半，EA分别在rcp4.5和rcp8.5场景下，ea可能会温暖1.7-2.8和2.2-5.4？°C相对于基线期间。方案不确定性被预计从21世纪末的中间到21世纪末超过模型不确定性。肯尼亚和维多利亚湖盆地的中心部分将目睹季节降雨量的最高增长。未来季节降雨的概率密度函数（PDF）显示相对于基线的差异差异和统计上微不足道的增加。因此，EA可能会遇到极端降雨事件的增加。了解EA的未来气候变异对于规划目的很重要，但这些结果基于相对课程的分辨率模型，易于偏见，因此应谨慎使用。有必要进一步研究ea的气候预测，包括确定全球模型在再现降雨气候学和该地区趋势方面表现不佳的原因。</ p> </摘要> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-21026/'>《International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2018年第3期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共18页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Ongoma Victor&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Ongoma Victor;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Chen Haishan&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Chen Haishan;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Gao Chujie&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Gao Chujie;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD)/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education (KLME)Nanjing University of Information Science &</p> <p>Technology (NUIST)China;</p> <p>Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD)/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education (KLME)Nanjing University of Information Science &</p> <p>Technology (NUIST)China;</p> <p>Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD)/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education (KLME)Nanjing University of Information Science &</p> <p>Technology (NUIST)China;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/1232.html" title="气候学">气候学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=climate projection&option=203" rel="nofollow">climate projection;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=rainfall&option=203" rel="nofollow">rainfall;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=temperature&option=203" rel="nofollow">temperature;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=CMIP5&option=203" rel="nofollow">CMIP5;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=East Africa&option=203" rel="nofollow">East Africa;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译：气候投影;降雨;温度;CMIP5;东非; </div> </li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="literature cardcommon" id="literaturereference" style="display:none"> <div class="similarity "> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent111">引文网络</h3> <div class="referencetab clearfix"> <ul id="referencedaohang"> <li dataid="referenceul">参考文献</li> <li dataid="citationul">引证文献</li> <li dataid="commonreferenceul">共引文献</li> <li dataid="commoncitationul">同被引文献</li> <li dataid="tworeferenceul">二级参考文献</li> <li dataid="twocitationul">二级引证文献</li> </ul> </div> <div class="reference_details" id="referenceList"> <ul id="referenceul"></ul> <ul id="citationul"></ul> <ul id="commonreferenceul"></ul> <ul id="commoncitationul"></ul> <ul id="tworeferenceul"></ul> <ul id="twocitationul"></ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="literature cardcommon"> <div class="similarity "> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent66">相似文献</h3> <div class="similaritytab clearfix"> <ul> <li class="active" >外文文献</li> <li 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tuijian_authcolor"> . 张莉</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=丁一汇&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">,丁一汇</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=吴统文&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">,吴统文</a> <span> <a href="/journal-cn-5006/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_authcolor"> . 气象学报 </a> </span> <span> . 2013</span><span>,第006期</span> </span> </div> </li> <li> <div> <b>6. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/academic-conference-cn_meeting-14005_thesis/020221040680.html">西北旱寒区地理、地形因素与降雨量及平均温度的相关性——以甘肃省为例</a> <b>[C]</b> <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=杨森&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor"> . 杨森</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=孙国钧&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth 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