Implications of differential effects between 1.5 and 2?°C global warming on temperature and precipitation extremes in China's urban agglomerations

Yu Rong; Zhai Panmao; Lu Yanyu

摘要

ABSTRACT >In the context of global warming, urban areas are more vulnerable to extreme weather conditions. In this study, four key temperature and precipitation extreme indices, defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices, are selected to investigate implications of differential effects of 1.5 and 2?°C global warming on extreme weather in China's urban agglomerations (CNUAs). Results indicate that bias‐corrected extreme indices derived from downscaled data sets of National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX‐GDDP) of 19 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models under RCP4.5 scenario [representative concentration pathways (RCP)] can be used to study the effects of global warming on extreme indices in locations of CNUAs. An increase in the global warming from 1.5 to 2?°C is likely to exacerbate the intensity of extreme maximum temperature (TXx) and decrease extreme minimum temperature (TNn) in CNUAs. Moreover, additional 0.5?°C warming is more likely than not to increase the intensity of total precipitation of very wet days (R95) and maximum 5‐day precipitation (Rx5day). For the very extreme events (>1.5σ), a global warming increase from 1.5 to 2?°C will lead to extra increase in extreme risk for very extreme TXx, R95p and Rx5day by 4.1, 1.8 and 1.0 times, relative to 1986–2005. Thus, it seems that reducing the 2?°C global warming level by 0.5?°C during the remainder of the 21st century would significantly suppress very extreme heat waves and very extreme wet events in CNUAs. Certainly, the urban heat island and aerosol effects are expected to further enhance such extreme events in the urban areas. The combined influence of global warming and urbanization effects on extreme events needs further study in the future. </abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><abstract xmlns =“http://www.wiley.com/namespaces/wiley”type =“main”> <title type =“main”>抽象</ title> >在全球变暖，城市地区更容易受到极端天气条件的影响。在这项研究中，选择了四个关键温度和降水极端指数，由“气候变化检测和指数”专家组定义，调查差异效应为1.5和2？°C全球变暖对中国城市集群的极端天气的影响（CNUAS ）。结果表明，在RCP4.5场景下，国家航空航天局（NASA）地球交换（NASA）地球交换全球每日缩小投影（NEX-GDDP）的偏置数据集（NASA）的全球日常缩小预测[代表性浓度途径（RCP）]可用于研究全球变暖对CNUAS位置的极端指标的影响。从1.5到2°C的全球变暖的增加可能会加剧极端最高温度（TXX）的强度，并降低CNUA中的极端最小温度（TNN）。此外，额外的0.5？°C热化比不增加非常潮湿的天的总沉淀强度（R95）和最大5天沉淀（RX5Day）。对于非常极端的事件（>1.5σ），从1.5到2的全球变暖增加将导致极端TXX，R95P和RX5Day的极端风险额外增加4.1,1.8和1.0倍，相对于1986年 - 2005年。因此，似乎在21世纪的剩余时间内将2°C全球变暖水平降低0.5？°C将显着抑制CNUA中非常极端的热波和非常极端的潮湿事件。当然，预计城市热岛和气溶胶效应将进一步增强城市地区的这种极端事件。全球变暖和城市化影响对极端事件的综合影响需要在未来进一步研究。</ p> </ abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-21026/'>《International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2018年第5期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共12页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Yu Rong&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Yu Rong;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Zhai Panmao&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Zhai Panmao;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Lu Yanyu&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Lu Yanyu;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyChina;</p> <p>State Key Laboratory of Severe WeatherChinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing China;</p> <p>Anhui Climate CenterAnhui Meteorological BureauHefei China;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/1232.html" title="气候学">气候学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=temperature extremes&option=203" rel="nofollow">temperature extremes;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=precipitation extremes&option=203" rel="nofollow">precipitation extremes;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=1.5 and 2?°C global warming&option=203" rel="nofollow">1.5 and 2?°C global warming;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=China's urban agglomerations&option=203" rel="nofollow">China's urban agglomerations;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译：温度极端;降水极端;1.5和2？°C全球变暖;中国的城市集群; </div> </li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="literature cardcommon"> <div class="similarity "> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent66">相似文献</h3> <div class="similaritytab clearfix"> <ul> <li class="active" >外文文献</li> <li >中文文献</li> <li >专利</li> </ul> </div> <div class="similarity_details"> <ul > <li> <div> <b>1. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/journal-foreign-detail/0704023003010.html">Implications of differential effects between 1.5 and 2?°C global warming on temperature and precipitation extremes in China's urban agglomerations</a> <b>[J]</b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Yu Rong&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth tuijian_authcolor">Yu Rong,</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Zhai Panmao&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow" class="tuijian_auth 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