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Bias correction method of extreme precipitation data in global climate model using mixture distributions

机译:基于混合分布的全球气候模式极端降水数据的偏差校正方法

摘要

The present invention relates to an error correction method of extreme precipitation data of a global climate model using a mixed distribution model. According to the present invention, the error correction method of extremal precipitation data of a global climate model using a mixed distribution model comprises: a step of setting up climate scenarios for global climate model (GCM) or regional climate model (RCM) calculations by implementing an algorithm; a step of adjusting a probability distribution of variables of the regional climate model (RCM) with respect to a probability distribution of observation data by using quantile mapping (QM) to correct a deviation of the global climate model (GCM) or regional climate model (RCM) calculations; a step of testing models of a plurality of mixed distribution functions to evaluate a climate change effect based on the adjusted probability distribution of variables of the regional climate model (RCM); a step of estimating parameters of the mixed distribution function models by using a meta-heuristic mathematics (MHML) technique; a step of performing bias correction based on the estimated parameters and result data obtained by a model of a mixed distribution function showing optimum performance among the mixed distribution function models tested; and a step of correcting an error of extreme precipitation data of the climate model by reflecting the result of the bias correction to the extreme precipitation data of the climate model.
机译:本发明涉及使用混合分布模型的全球气候模型的极端降水数据的误差校正方法。根据本发明,使用混合分布模型的全球气候模型的极端降水数据的误差校正方法包括:通过实施以下步骤来为全球气候模型(GCM)或区域气候模型(RCM)计算建立气候情景的步骤。算法;通过使用分位数映射(QM)校正全球气候模型(GCM)或区域气候模型的偏差来相对于观测数据的概率分布调整区域气候模型(RCM)变量的概率分布的步骤( RCM)计算;测试多个混合分布函数的模型以基于调整后的区域气候模型(RCM)变量的概率分布来评估气候变化影响的步骤;通过使用元启发式数学(MHML)技术估计混合分布函数模型的参数的步骤;根据估计的参数和结果数据执行偏差校正的步骤,该结果数据是由混合分布函数的模型获得的,该模型在测试的混合分布函数模型中显示出最佳性能;通过将偏差校正的结果反映到气候模型的极端降水数据中来校正气候模型的极端降水数据的误差的步骤。

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