Comparison between past and future extreme precipitations simulated by global and regional climate models over the Tibetan Plateau

Gao Yanhong; Xiao Linhong; Chen Deliang; Xu Jianwei; Zhang Hongwen

摘要

ABSTRACT >Past studies on regional climate change over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) have mainly looked at changes in the mean climate. This study focuses on past and future extreme precipitations, simulated by global and regional climate models over the TP. To assess the influence of large‐scale forcing on dynamic downscaling using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, downscaling results for the historical period (1980–2005) with ERA‐Interim reanalysis and CCSM4 as forcings are evaluated against a gridded observational data set. These are inter‐compared before future projections for the period 2005–2100 under two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The followings are obtained: (1) the reanalysis greatly overestimates not only the mean, but also extreme precipitation. The overestimation in CCSM4 is even larger than that of the reanalysis. (2) The two downscalings outperform their forcings, reflected by reduced overestimation for extreme precipitation frequency, increased spatial pattern correlations and more accurate linear trends, especially for the downscaling driven by CCSM. This demonstrates the constraining power of the fine‐scale modelling and the importance of more realistic representations of surface forcing and related processes in the TP. (3) CCSM4 projects a general wetting across the whole TP with increases of heavy precipitation as well as the wetting intensification with warming. WRF also projects an overall wetting, but the wetting is less sensitive to the warming and there is more of an increase in light precipitation frequency. More importantly, a diverse pattern with wetting in the north and drying in the south is found in the dynamical downscaling in contrast to the uniform wetting in its forcing. </abstract> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> <div class="translation abstracttxt"> <span class="zhankaihshouqi fivelineshidden" id="abstract"> <span>机译：</span><abstract xmlns =“http://www.wiley.com/namespaces/wiley”type =“main”> <title type =“main”>摘要</ title> >在藏族区域气候变化的研究高原（TP）主要看着平均气候变化。本研究侧重于过去和未来的极端沉淀，通过TP的全球和区域气候模型模拟。为了评估使用天气研究和预测（WRF）模型的大规模迫使对动态缩小的影响，历史时期（1980-2005）的缩小结果与ERA-Instim Reany分析和CCSM4为强调评估了网格化的观察数据集。在两种情况下的2005-2100期限（RCP4.5和RCP8.5）之前，这些都是相互比较的。如下所得到的以下内容：（1）再分析极大地高估了平均值，也极为沉淀。 CCSM4中的高估甚至比重新分析的高估。（2）两次缩小装置优于其强调，反映了极端降水频率的高估，增加了空间模式相关性和更准确的线性趋势，特别是对于CCSM驱动的较低。这证明了微尺度建模的约束力和地表迫切和相关过程中更现实表达的重要性。（3）CCSM4在整个TP中投射一般润湿，随着沉重的降水以及加热的润湿强化。 WRF还突然润湿，但润湿对变暖的敏感性不太敏感，并且还有更大的光降水频率增加。更重要的是，在南部润湿和南方湿润的不同模式，在动态较令人突然与其迫使的均匀润湿相反，发现了这种不同的模式。</ p> </摘要> </span> <span class="z_kbtn z_kbtnclass hoverxs" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> <div class="record"> <h2 class="all_title" id="enpatent33" >著录项</h2> <ul> <li> <span class="lefttit">来源</span> <div style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"> <a href='/journal-foreign-21026/'>《International Journal of Climatology: A Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society》</a> <b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>2018年第3期</span><b style="margin: 0 2px;">|</b><span>共13页</span> </div> </li> <li> <div class="author"> <span class="lefttit">作者</span> <p id="fAuthorthree" class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi"> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Gao Yanhong&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Gao Yanhong;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Xiao Linhong&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Xiao Linhong;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Chen Deliang&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Chen Deliang;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Xu Jianwei&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Xu Jianwei;</a> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Zhang Hongwen&option=202" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Zhang Hongwen;</a> </p> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zkzz" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </li> <li> <div style="display: flex;"> <span class="lefttit">作者单位</span> <div style="position: relative;margin-left: 3px;max-width: 639px;"> <div class="threelineshidden zhankaihshouqi" id="fOrgthree"> <p>Key Laboratory of Land Surface Process and Climate Change in Cold and Arid Regions Northwest Institute of Eco‐environment and ResourcesChinese Academy of SciencesLanzhou China;</p> <p>Key Laboratory of Land Surface Process and Climate Change in Cold and Arid Regions Northwest Institute of Eco‐environment and ResourcesChinese Academy of SciencesLanzhou China;</p> <p>Department of Earth Sciences Regional Climate GroupUniversity of GothenburgGothenburg Sweden;</p> <p>Key Laboratory of Land Surface Process and Climate Change in Cold and Arid Regions Northwest Institute of Eco‐environment and ResourcesChinese Academy of SciencesLanzhou China;</p> <p>Key Laboratory of Land Surface Process and Climate Change in Cold and Arid Regions Northwest Institute of Eco‐environment and ResourcesChinese Academy of SciencesLanzhou China;</p> </div> <span class="z_kbtnclass z_kbtnclassall hoverxs" id="zhdw" style="display: none;">展开▼</span> </div> </div> </li> <li > <span class="lefttit">收录信息</span> <span style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;display: inline-block;"></span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">原文格式</span> <span>PDF</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">正文语种</span> <span>eng</span> </li> <li> <span class="lefttit">中图分类</span> <span><a href="https://www.zhangqiaokeyan.com/clc/1232.html" title="气候学">气候学;</a></span> </li> <li class="antistop"> <span class="lefttit">关键词</span> <p style="width: 86%;vertical-align: text-top;"> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Tibetan Plateau&option=203" rel="nofollow">Tibetan Plateau;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=dynamic downscaling&option=203" rel="nofollow">dynamic downscaling;</a> <a style="color: #3E7FEB;" href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=extreme precipitation indices&option=203" rel="nofollow">extreme precipitation indices;</a> </p> <div class="translation"> 机译：藏高原;动态镇压;极端降水指数; </div> </li> </ul> </div> </div> <div class="literature cardcommon" id="literaturereference" style="display:none"> <div class="similarity "> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent111">引文网络</h3> <div class="referencetab clearfix"> <ul id="referencedaohang"> <li dataid="referenceul">参考文献</li> <li dataid="citationul">引证文献</li> <li dataid="commonreferenceul">共引文献</li> <li dataid="commoncitationul">同被引文献</li> <li dataid="tworeferenceul">二级参考文献</li> <li dataid="twocitationul">二级引证文献</li> </ul> </div> <div class="reference_details" id="referenceList"> <ul id="referenceul"></ul> <ul id="citationul"></ul> <ul id="commonreferenceul"></ul> <ul id="commoncitationul"></ul> <ul id="tworeferenceul"></ul> <ul id="twocitationul"></ul> </div> </div> </div> <div class="literature cardcommon"> <div class="similarity "> <h3 class="all_title" id="enpatent66">相似文献</h3> <div class="similaritytab clearfix"> <ul> <li class="active" >外文文献</li> <li >中文文献</li> <li >专利</li> </ul> </div> <div class="similarity_details"> <ul > <li> <div> <b>1. </b><a class="enjiyixqcontent" href="/journal-foreign-detail/0704023002970.html">Comparison between past and future extreme precipitations simulated by global and regional climate models over the Tibetan Plateau</a> <b>[J]</b> . <span> <a href="/search.html?doctypes=4_5_6_1-0_4-0_1_2_3_7_9&sertext=Gao Yanhong&option=202" target="_blank" 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