Regionality in extreme precipitations linked to temperature over Japan in present and future climate

摘要

The frequency of extreme precipitation eventsis increased in many regions across the globeand now of serious concern (IPCC 2012).This increase may continue and is expected toincrease more in future warming climateaccording to the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC)equation which states that atmosphere canhold more moisture in warmer air temperature(~7%/℃). In our study, we investigated theextreme precipitation intensities linked totemperature over seven different sub-regionsof Japan (Figure 1) by analyzingAPHRODITE daily dataset at 0.25 degree forthe period 1961-2007 and the d4PDF dataset(one member) at 20 km for the two climateperiods (1951-2010 and 2051-2110). Inmethods, the wet days (defined as ≥ 1mm/day) are identified and stratified to atemperature bin based on the wet day’s meantemperature. The temperature bins are formedat 1° intervals and the 99-percentile of theprecipitation intensities are computed fromeach temperature bin.