The Long-Term Periodic Patterns of Global Rabies Epidemics Among Animals: A Modeling Analysis

摘要

Rabies remains a serious threat to public health in Asia, Africa and some parts of Europe with a case fatality rate of 95%. We adopted wavelet analysis to study the long-term recurrence of global rabies outbreaks and found that a 3- to 4-year periodicity has existed since 2005. Furthermore, a simple compartmental model is developed and analyzed to study the transmission dynamics, and to show the existence of the observed periodicity as well as the endemic feature of rabies among animals. Our findings indicate the existence of the oscillation patterns (recurrence), and the epidemic is at its peak since 2018.