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Global dynamics of the periodic SEIR epidemic model

机译:周期性SEIR流行病模型的全局动力学

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摘要

In this paper, the global dynamics of a periodic SEIR epidemic model is investigated. The basic reproductive number R0 is defined. It is proved that the disease-free equilibrium is globally stable if R0 < 1. The disease-free equilibrium is unstable and the disease remains endemic when R0 > 1. The existence of the periodic solution is investigated, and it is proved that the periodic model has at least one periodic solution if R0 > 1. Numerical simulations are also provided to confirm our analytic results and simulations show that the eradication policy on the basis of the average reproduction number may overestimate the infectious risk when the disease shows periodic behavior.
机译:本文研究了周期性SEIR流行病模型的全局动力学。定义了基本生殖数R 0 。证明如果R 0 <1,则无病平衡是整体稳定的。当R 0 > 1时,无病平衡是不稳定的,疾病仍是地方性的。研究了周期解的存在性,证明了如果R 0 > 1,周期模型至少具有一个周期解。当疾病表现出周期性行为时,基于平均繁殖数量的根除政策可能会高估感染风险。

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