Forecasting Earthquakes by Hybrid Model of Pattern Informatic and PageRank Methods

摘要

Although there is no proven method for predicting earthquakes in a short time, it is feasible to evaluate their hazards probabilistically. Here, we aim to find active and passive places of Iran's geographical region. In this regard, we have analyzed pattern informatic (PI) and the relative intensity methods in Iran as retrospective binary forecasting methods, and used the PageRank (PR) algorithm to rank different places. Then, we introduce a hybrid model of PR and PI methods (PR-PI) for prediction in the earthquakes network. The results show that our method turns out to be one of the most reliable forecasts compared to other methods based on the common relative operating characteristic diagram. We have also found a regional seismogenic map where earthquakes are likely to occur during a specific time interval in the future.