Correcting computer model weather forecasts using a hybrid analog method with dynamic time warping

摘要

An aspect receiving a new weather forecast. A temporally coherent analog modeling process is performed to identify a historical weather forecast that matches the new weather forecast. The new weather forecast is updated based on historical weather observations at points in time in the historical weather forecast. The updating includes: shifting a point in time in the historical weather forecast based on a factor determined by a previously executed dynamic time warping (DTW) of the historical weather forecast and the historical weather observations; and modifying the new weather forecast based on the historical weather observations at the shifted point in time. The updated new weather forecast is output.