Uncertainties of flood frequency estimation approaches based on continuous simulation using data resampling

摘要

Highlights?Uncertainties of flood frequency estimation methods were analysed on 1112 stations.?Purely statistical methods and a continuous simulation method were compared.?Theoretical sampling distribution of parameters and bootstrap method were used.?Propagation of rainfall quantiles uncertainties to runoff uncertainties was studied.?For extreme flood quantiles the uncertainties are mostly due to the rainfall generator.AbstractFlood frequency analyses (FFAs) are needed for flood risk management. Many methods exist ranging from classical purely statistical approaches to more complex approaches based on process simulation. The results of these methods are associated with uncertainties that are sometimes difficult to estimate due to the complexity of the approaches or the number of parameters, especially for process