US shale output to hit record next month,but bleak times ahead

摘要

According to EIA data,US shale oil output is set to rise about 18.OK b/d month-on-month to a record 9.08MM b/d in April as output growth from the Permian Basin will offset production declines from all the other major US shale plays.Permian output is forecast to grow by 38.OK b/d month-on-month to a record 4.79MM b/d.Bakken output is forecast to fall about 1.4K b/d month-on-month to 1.47MM b/d.But the ongoing price rout is poised to hit US shale firms particularly hard,with IHS Markit warning in a report released March 16 that US crude production could decline by 2.00-4.00MM b/d over the next 18 months as shale firms lower capital spending in response to the ongoing price rout.Goldman Sachs estimates US oil production will fall by 1.30MM b/d from 3Q 2020-4Q 2021.Reflecting the ongoing reduction in capital spending within the US shale sector,EIA data shows that the number of drilled wells in US shale plays last month was 1,014,the lowest level since June 2017,while the number of completed wells was 1,074,reducing the number of drilled but uncompleted(DUC)wells by 60 to 7,637,the lowest level since Nov.2018.