Climate change analysis in southern Telangana region, Andhra Pradesh using LARS-WG model

摘要

Weather-generating models are widely used for studying the climate change over longer periods. LARS-WG model was evaluated for southern Telangana region (Hayathnagar, Yacharam and Rajendranagar). A 30-year base weather data (1980-2010) was used to generate the long-term weather series from 2011 to 2060. The results of t and F tests at probability of 5% for comparing means and standard deviations of monthly rainfall and air temperatures indicated that the observed and predicted series for the base period are within acceptable limits. The statistics of model efficiency indicates that mean monthly rainfall and daily air temperature are close to the predicted series over the base period. The model efficiency was highest in the case of Rajendranagar (98.75%). The root mean square error and sum of square error varied from 0.4 to 1.3 mm and 615 to 1745 mm respectively. The model predicted the maximum increase in average annual rainfall of 5.16% in 2030 and 9.5% in 2060 for Yacharam compared to Hayathnagar and Rajendranagar over the normal annual rainfall of the base period (1980-2010). However, the model predicted increase in average seasonal rainfall for Hayathnagar (6.2% in 2030 and 8.8% in 2060). In case of air temperature, the model predicted increase in maximum temperature in the range 1-1.53% and 2.5% for 2030 and 2060 respectively, for these locations whereas minimum temperature decreased in the range 3.7-10.2% and 6.3-11.7% respectively, for 2030 and 2060. The performance of LARS-WG model was ranked high with maximum model efficiency in all selected mandals of Ranga Reddy district in southern Telangana. This model can be replicated in other mandals of southern Telangana as climate characteristics of the present mandals are similar to other districts in the region.