EVALUATION METHOD AND SYSTEM OF RAINFALL QUANTILE CONSIDERING CLIMATE CHANGE IN NONSTATIONARY REGIONAL FREQUENCY ANALYSIS

摘要

The present invention relates to a method of calculating a probable precipitation amount in a non-stationary regional frequency analysis considering a climate change. The method of calculating a probable precipitation amount in the non-stationary regional frequency analysis considering the climate change comprises: (a) a step of obtaining a tendency precipitation amount by analyzing tendency based on precipitation amount data input and observed in a plurality of areas; (b) a step of generating non-stationary precipitation amount distribution model using the obtained tendency precipitation amount with a non-stationary probability distribution type and a non-stationary index flood method; (c) a step of estimating the parameters for the generated non-stationary precipitation amount distribution model and selecting an optimal model; and (d) a step of calculating the precipitation amount using the estimated parameters and the selected optimized model. The method of calculating a probable precipitation amount in a non-stationary regional frequency analysis considering the climate change is able to calculate precipitation amounts for various duration times at once and calculate a precipitation amount in a local frequency analysis reflecting a complex climate change; thereby obtaining a convenient and reliable precipitation amount with less time and costs.