Trade terms, subsidies and demand cloud arable outlook

摘要

The arable sector is expected to be among the hardest hit by the reduction in subsidy as the UK leaves the CAP regime, says David Eudall, head of arable market specialists at the AHDB.In a series of longer-term outlooks published this week by the levy board, he highlights the main issues facing the sector.Future supportThe balance between crop production on marginal land and environmental schemes will be key in ensuring a consistent domestic production, he says, warning that any future environmental scheme will offer only limited income to offset the loss of subsidy."If the environmental schemes are too supportive, more land will move out of production. If they are not supportive enough, unprofitable marginal land will continue to be used and arable businesses may suffer from high costs and variable yields," he says.