Medium-Term Outlook for World Agriculture and Fertilizer Demand 2018/19-2023/24(PPT)

摘要

The International Fertilizer Association(IFA)endeavors to base its reports and presentations on accurate information to the extent reasonably possible under the circumstances.However,neither IFA nor its members warrant or guarantee any information IFA publishes or presents and they disclaim any liability for any consequences,direct or indirect,arising from the use of or reliance upon IFA publications or presentations by any person at any time.Unless explicitly marked as being for public distribution,all data,statistics and other information compiled by the International Fertilizer Association(IFA)about fertilizer products,fertilizer companies and fertilizer markets are strictly reserved for members.Membership in IFA includes a user license for the statistics and reports produced by IFA.Under no conditions do members have the right to reproduce or circulate this information to non-members.Members may circulate or reproduce this information for their own internal use."Internal use"does not include subsidiaries,affiliates or business partners unless they are explicitly included in a group membership of IFA.Any exceptions to the exclusivity of the fertilizer-industry information provided as a benefit of membership in IFA must be approved by the IFA Secretariat.Global growth fell sharply in the first quarter of 2019 and will remain weak throughout the year.Both global trade and investment are weaker.While job creation is sustaining consumption growth,living standards have not recovered from the 2008 financial crisis.Trade tensions are affecting global economic growth,which is forecast at only 3.3% in 2019 before climbing to 3.6% in 2020,according to the International Monetary Fund(IMF).The World Bank and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development(OECD)have published lower estimates:the World Bank anticipates that global growth will reach 2.6% in 2019 and 2.7% in 2020,while the OECD forecasts that it will be 3.2% in 2019 and 3.4% in 2020.In the United States(US),growth remains relatively solid but is projected to be more moderate in 2020 as the boost from tax cuts fades.Uncertainty about China is high,as its growth is slowing faster than expected.India's growth is expected to pick up as it benefits from lower oil prices and a looser monetary policy than expected.Brazil's recovery from the 2015-16 recession is forecast to continue.Mexico and Indonesia appear stable.Argentina and Turkey should gradually recover while remaining fragile.Growth in Europe remains weak.Trade tensions have had a negative impact on manufacturing,hitting Germany and Italy hardest.Weak trade and low economic confidence,together with the possibility that Brexit will eventually take place,are a drain on growth.Slow growth in Japan will likely continue as exports drop and the size of the workforce shrinks.Beyond 2020,the IMF expects global growth to remain stable at about 3.6%,supported by the continued expansion of emerging economies such as China and India(despite gradually lower growth in China)but slowed by relatively modest growth in advanced and other emerging market economies such as Russia,Mexico and Turkey.Oil prices fell from US$81 a barrel for Brent crude in October 2018 to US$71 in May 2019.Weakening global growth and risks due to the escalation of trade conflicts are creating an additional downward strain on prices.Oil prices are expected to decline further in 2019:the United States Energy Information Administration forecasts that Brent crude spot prices could drop as low as US$61.