While Russia's commitment to cut crude production by 300,000 b/d under the Opec/non-Opec agreement may have short-term impacts on the country's crude and petroleum product exports, long-term export trends will mainly be impacted by the downstream sector, which is expected to undergo major changes in the next decade, according to Moscow-based Vygon Consulting. Russian crude exports, including those to non-FSU and FSU countries, are expected to drop this year by 0.7% to 252.5 million tons (5.07 million b/d), mainly as a result of the production cut agreement - but should return to record levels set in 2016 of 254 million tons as soon as next year once the agreement ends, presumably starting from April next year. This is in line with expectations of Transneft, Russia's national oil pipeline monopoly (IOD Jul.19'17).
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