Analysts raise forecasts

摘要

Analysts have raised their oil price forecasts for this year, supported by solid demand growth and continued Opec and non-Opec production discipline. Atlantic basin benchmark North Sea Dated or Ice Brent will be $66.40/bl this year, while US marker WTI will rise to $62/bl, a survey of 14 analysts shows. The forecasts are up by around $2.40/bl from a March survey (see table). The revisions come as oil prices rally, with North Sea Dated climbing above $70/bl. Prices have benefited from a “perfect storm” of stagnant supply, geopolitical risk and a harsh winter, which have depleted product stocks and brought the “rebalancing” within reach, Barclays says. Opec overcompliance, strong demand growth and geopolitical risks remain key supporting factors, the bank says. “Retaliation by the US and its allies to the chemical attack in Syria, Houthi missiles targeting Aramco’s energy facilities, and increased tension with Iran suggest this geopolitical risk is unlikely to subside in the near term.” Barclays sa