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The Ability of Analysts Recommendations to Predict Optimistic and Pessimistic Forecasts

机译:分析师建议的预测乐观和悲观预测的能力

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摘要

Previous researches show that buy (growth) companies conduct income increasing earnings management in order to meet forecasts and generate positive forecast Errors (FEs). This behavior however, is not inherent in sell (non-growth) companies. Using the aforementioned background, this research hypothesizes that since sell companies are pressured to avoid income increasing earnings management, they are capable, and in fact more inclined, to pursue income decreasing Forecast Management (FM) with the purpose of generating positive FEs. Using a sample of 6553 firm-years of companies that are listed in the NYSE between the years 2005–2010, the study determines that sell companies conduct income decreasing FM to generate positive FEs. However, the frequency of positive FEs of sell companies does not exceed that of buy companies. Using the efficiency perspective, the study suggests that even though buy and sell companies have immense motivation in avoiding negative FEs, they exploit different but efficient strategies, respectively, in order to meet forecasts. Furthermore, the findings illuminated the complexities behind informative and opportunistic forecasts that falls under the efficiency versus opportunistic theories in literature.
机译:先前的研究表明,购买(成长)公司进行收入增加收益管理是为了达到预测并产生正的预测错误(FE)。但是,这种行为并不是销售(非增长)公司所固有的。基于上述背景,本研究假设,由于卖方公司承受着避免收入增加的收入管理的压力,因此他们有能力并且实际上更倾向于追求收入减少的预测管理(FM),以产生积极的FE。使用2005年至2010年期间在纽约证券交易所上市的6553个公司年的公司样本,该研究确定了出售公司进行的收益递减FM产生正FE。但是,卖出公司的正面FE出现频率不超过买入公司。从效率的角度来看,该研究表明,尽管买卖公司在避免负FE方面具有巨大的动力,但它们分别采用了不同但有效的策略来达到预期。此外,研究结果阐明了信息和机会主义预测背后的复杂性,这些复杂性属于文献中的效率与机会主义理论之间。

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