Grey matter: Ageing in developing countries

摘要

The developing world is going grey. By 2050, one in five people in poor nations will be over 60 years old. Falling fertility rates, and increased life expectancy from improvements in health care, especially in Asia, has led to a rapidly ageing population. In part, this reflects a worldwide trend=in the next 5 years, for the first time ever, the number of people aged 65 years and older will outnumber children younger than 5 years of ageBut we are set to witness a seismic demographic shift of ageing to the developing world. By 2050, 80% of the 2 billion elderly people on this planet will live in the developing world (table, figure). Countries in Asia are set to see some of the biggest rises-by 2050, one in four Asians will be older than 60 years of age. Yet even countries in sub-Saharan Africa, where fertility and mortality (both of which keep a population young) are still high, "the number of people aged over 60 is set to triple from 53 million in 2009 to 150 million by 2050", says Sebastiana Kalula, director of the International Longevity Centre, University of Cape Town, South Africa.