Sustainable world coal mining: perspectives to 2030

摘要

Coal is an important component of world mining and will continue to play a significant societal role in meeting the aspirations of nations for development, sustainability and eradication of energy poverty. In "real world" scenarios, coal mining worldwide, at 4.3 bt in 2000, is expected to double by 2030 due mainly to demand from electricity generators. Investments would allow , the industry to replicate productivity gains of 10 percent to 15 percent per year also in the future, thereby strengthening coal's traditional price competitiveness. Beyond 2030, mining growth would continue, pulled by ever increasing demand for power, particularly in developing countries. Most interestingly, a coal-based synfuels market is likely to develop. Dedicated mines would be integrated part of conglomerates active in chemical processing and synfuels trading. There are safety problems and inadequate environmental legislation and enforcement in a number of developing and transition economies. However, the main issue is less sustainable coal mining, but sustainable coal use. Raising combustion efficiencies from present world average to present state of the art would already reduce emissions by 22 percent, - an achievement attained by no other CO_2 mitigation technology. Subsequently carbon ought and could be captured and stored, with the potential of another 30 percent reduction of CO_2 emissions by 2050. Modern mining and combustion technologies should be deployed in emerging coal nations, if necessary on a preferential basis. Nothing would'occur by itself: Governmental coal policies would have to be market-oriented, acknowledge the role of coal in socio-economic development and support its RD&D effort to achieve sustainability. The coal mining and coal-based power industries would have to become more pro-active in adopting modern management practices and technologies, particularly in developing countries. Community and public relations are critical. The message should be: "Coal can be clean. Coal is part of the problem of sustainability, but also part of the solution. "