A Dynamic Monthly Demand Model of ILS.-Produced Softwood Lumber with a Futures Market Linkage

摘要

In this paper we estimate a dynamic demand model of U.S. produced softwood lumber using a cointegrated vector autoregression model. We find that demand for U.S.-produced lumber responds to prices of softwood lumber, housing starts, and lumber prices in the futures market, and that various trade measures against Canadian softwood lumber imports have boosted this demand. These results suggest that U.S. lumber producers and consumers could use price information from futures markets to manage price risksand adjust their production/consumption activities and that U.S. producers' political actions have paid huge dividends.