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Estimating private information usage amongst analysts: Evidence from UK earnings forecasts

机译:评估分析师对私人信息的使用情况:来自英国盈利预测的证据

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摘要

This paper introduces a methodology for estimating the likelihood of private information usage amongst earnings analysts. This is achieved by assuming that one group of analysts generate forecasts based on the underlying dynamics of earnings, while all other analysts are assumed to issue forecasts based on the prevailing consensus forecast. Given this behavioural dichotomy, we are able to derive (and estimate) a structural econometric model of forecast behaviour, which has implications regarding the determinants of analysts' private information endowments and forecast accuracy over the forecast horizon.
机译:本文介绍了一种估算收益分析师中使用私人信息的可能性的方法。这是通过假设一组分析师根据潜在的收益动态生成预测而实现的,而假定所有其他分析师根据当时的共识预测发布预测。鉴于这种行为二分法,我们能够得出(并估计)预测行为的结构计量经济学模型,这对分析师的私人信息end赋和预测准确性的决定因素具有影响。

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